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22 Feb 2010

Health Care Legislation, Part 14:
Obama's January 22 proposal

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

President Obama announced a televised meeting for Thursday to discuss all options for health care legislation. Overnight, the White House released "The Obama Plan: Stability & Security For All Americans," which the President intends to be the focal point for the event. Although this Plan is short, the White House also released a one-page summary.

The January 22 Obama Plan is not accompanied by legislative text. Thus, it can only be analyzed in qualitative terms. We do that below the jump.

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17 Feb 2010

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 5:
On the first anniversary

by Richard Belzer

in

Yesterday the White House released the Administration's first annual report on the "stimulus bill" (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or "ARRA"). The Administration and its critics are sparring over how many jobs the bill "created or saved."

Where do the numbers come from?

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1 Feb 2010

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 4:
Jobs 'created or saved' becomes jobs 'funded'

by Richard Belzer

in

Washington Post staff writer Ed O'Keefe says the "Obama administration's economic stimulus program created nearly 600,000 jobs in the final three months of 2009."

These figures are analogous to those reported three months ago and which caused significant controversy. Initial reporting was rife with errors and relied on a system that impeded error correction.

They are different, however, in ways that make them incomparable with the figures initially reported.

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23 Jan 2010

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 3:
Estimation replaced by assumption

by Richard Belzer

in

Previously, we have noted that the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which is responsible for ensuring accountability and transparency in the reporting of jobs "created or saved" by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, or "stimulus" bill), was not actually performing this task. Further, the underlying data were invalid and unreliable because the Office of Management and Budget did not specify a consistent estimation methodology.

Recently, Washington Post staff writer Alec MacGillis reported that White House Council of Economic Advisers chairman Christina Romer now claims ARRA "has created or saved between 1.7 million and 2 million jobs."

Examining these figures closely reveals that they are not estimates at all, but assumptions built into the Administration's estimation model.

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13 Jan 2010

Sin Taxes:
Maryland's proposed 10-cent per drink alcohol tax

by Richard Belzer

in

Sin taxes are always popular with legislators. People volunteer to pay them, and volunteers garner little public sympathy.

Maryland legislators are proposing to levy a new tax of ten cents per eight ounces of alcoholic beverage sold in the State. A news story today shows how proponents of sin taxes tend to also be in favor of sin.

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7 Jan 2010

A Pollution Tax or a New Sales Tax?
The District of Columbia charges 5 cents for each disposable shopping bag

by Richard Belzer

in

On January 1, the District of Columbia began imposing a a 5-cent "fee" on disposable shopping bags.

Is this a pollution tax, as its backers claim, or just another sales tax?

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4 Jan 2010

The Market Failure in Mail-Order Brides:
Can State regulation help?

by Richard Belzer

in ,

Washington Examiner reporter Alan Suderman says "Maryland lawmakers are pushing for tighter regulations on the mail-order bride industry."

There is no question Maryland can write more regulations. But can regulation solve market failure?

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28 Dec 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 11:
Insight from the funny papers

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

Both the Senate and House versions of health care legislation include provisions that would prohibit insurers from declining to underwrite people with preexisting conditions and prevent them from imposing annual or lifetime caps on coverage.

Today's Shoe illustrates one of the problems with these proposed restrictions.

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22 Dec 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 10:
The bill that passed cloture

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

We've delayed publishing analysis of the Senate's health care bill until a version could garner 60 votes, and thus survive a cloture vote to cut off debate. That bill is Majority Leader Reid's manager's amendment to HR 3590.

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30 Nov 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 9:
Why supporters insist on the individual mandate

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

In its debate over health care legislation, the Senate and the Obama administration must contend with conflicting forces and incentives. There appears to be a political consensus among supporters that "guaranteed issue" and "community rating" are essential features of any bill. ("Guaranteed issue" means people cannot be denied coverage no matter how risky they are. "Community rating" means people with low health risks have to subsidize them.)

As we have noted several times now, keeping these features requires that everyone have health insurance. This means people with low health risks must be compelled to buy (and pay too much for) health insurance.

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27 Nov 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 8:
Is an 'individual mandate' constitutional? Necessary?

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

Proposed health care legislation includes both employer mandates and an "individual mandate." Anyone not covered by employer-provided health insurance would be required by law to buy a qualifying health insurance plan or pay a tax.

An interesting debate has arisen concerning whether Congress has authority under the Constitution to require individuals to purchase health insurance. David B. Rivkin Jr. and Lee A. Casey are perhaps the most prominent opponents:

[C]an Congress require every American to buy health insurance?

In short, no. The Constitution assigns only limited, enumerated powers to Congress and none, including the power to regulate interstate commerce or to impose taxes, would support a federal mandate requiring anyone who is otherwise without health insurance to buy it.

Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus recently defended the proposition that such a law would pass constitutional muster.

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21 Nov 2009

The Government's New Recommendations for Breast Cancer Screening, Part 2:
Bipartisan complaints with ironic consequences

by Richard Belzer

in ,

The US Preventive Services Task Force recommendation that women without any risk factors for breast cancer obtain mammograms less frequently has elicited furious complaints by both Republican and Democratic Members of Congress. We blogged on the report when it was released.

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Government as Competitor:
Eliminating the 'public option' produces a market

by Richard Belzer

in

Local governments across the country arte having to cut services to balance their budgets. Roanoke (VA) has cut curbside leaf collection, and the result is a vibrant private market.

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13 Nov 2009

Smart Electric Meters:
Are the data inaccurate or just ugly?

by Richard Belzer

in ,

California is at the vanguard of pricing electricity by the time of day it is used. The reason is that it costs more to produce (or buy) electricity at peak times. By charging prices linked to marginal cost, electricity consumers can be motivated to use power when it is less expensive.

The movement toward marginal cost pricing is encountering opposition.

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12 Nov 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 7:
Calculate how much taxpayers would subsidize you

by Richard Belzer

in ,

Estimates of the social costs and benefits of health care legislation are hard to find. The Congressional Budget Office estimates federal budget revenues and receipts, and while it is supposed to estimate non-federal costs, it generally does not do so.

The Kaiser Family Foundation has a calculator that tells you how much taxpayers would subsidize your health insurance if your employer did not provide it, and thus you had to purchase it yourself (the "individual mandate").

This calculator provides some very interesting insights about the House and Senate health care bills. Most strikingly, it's possible that a majority of Americans would receive large taxpayer subsidies.

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