2 Sep 2010
How Many Unlawful Aliens Are in the US?
Published estimates are much less certain than advertised
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality
Estimating the quantity of something that does not want to be estimated could be the most difficult quantitative task around. For this reason, estimates of the unlawful alien population are prone to both error and bias.
The Pew Hispanic Center published new estimates on September 1. Pew's estimates are reported as being much more certain than they actually are.
More...15 Aug 2010
The Summer Hiatus
by Richard Belzer
in Welcome
Neutral Source has not posted since May. The reason is managing editor Richard Belzer underwent a total knee replacement. Pre-surgical expectations for the pace of recovery were overly optimistic. It turns out that sitting at a desk has been much more difficult than expected.
Posts will resume shortly.
More...Can States Regulate Immigration? Part 12
Does the Privacy Act protect the records of unlawful aliens?
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Policy
The Washington Examiner reports that the Department of Homeland Security will not release records of unlawful aliens detained in Prince William County VA, on the ground that doing so would violate the Privacy Act of 1974.
Is this correct?
More...19 May 2010
Carbon Taxes:
Reduce global warming or raise revenue?
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Previously we have blogged on so-called Pigouvian taxes as policy remedies for addressing climate change, noting how they often degenerate into schemes for raising revenue rather than equalizing private and social cost. Today's news brings another example.
More...2 May 2010
Can States Regulate Immigration? Part 11
How Opposition to Arizona SB 1070 May Be Harming Unlawful Aliens
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
We have reviewed Arizona's new immigration law (SB 1070) and posted
an analysis
of its major provisions. The Arizona House subsequently passed a
revision, and we analyzed
that. Meanwhile, opponents have reacted stridently,
calling the state of Arizona:
- A police state (Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.); Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.); The Nation, via National Public Radio; New York Times Supreme Court correspondent Linda Greenhouse; American Civil Liberties Union; LaRaza President and CEO Janet Murguia) in which Americans would have to "present their papers" (Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.), Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.))
- Reminiscent of Nazi Germany (Cardinal Roger Mahoney, Al Sharpton, Mack, Polis), the Soviet Union (Greenhouse, Mahoney), the Jim Crow South (Sharpton, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Tex.), rapper Rass Kass, demonstrators in Newport News VA), or apartheid South Africa (Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.), Sharpton)
- Racist (Polis, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson)
As our previous posts here and here make clear, these characterization are not based on the text of the law, which makes it a state crime to violate federal immigration law. Ironically, the use of extreme language by opponents of the law may have the unintended effect of better achieving the law's objectives than the law itself.
More...
30 Apr 2010
Can States Regulate Immigration? Part 10
Arizona legislature may amend SB 1070
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
Alia Beard Rau of the Arizona Republic reports that Arizona legislators are proposing to make technical changes to SB 1070, the law enacted on April 23 that makes certain federal immigration law violations state crimes.
More...27 Apr 2010
Can States Regulate Immigration? Part 9
Arizona Senate Bill 1070
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
Arizona's legislature last week enacted legislation that has garnered considerable press attention and commentary, including criticism by President Obama (New York Times, Fox News, NPR, Real Clear Politics. In a Sunday op-ed published by the Washington Post, Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon says the bill is the product of a "far-right legislature"; that it is unconstitutional; and that it is motivated by "the vocal, spiteful few" who are "bitter, small-minded and full of hate." Gordon and others vow to challenge the law's constitutionality "because of the civil rights being violated and the vagueness of the statute." Colorado Democratic Rep. Jared Polis compares the law with Nazi Germany prior to the Holocaust and says he fears "Arizona is headed for a police state."
Gordon's views seem typical of those views expressed in commentaries published since Gov. Jan Brewer signed the bill into law on April 23. We've seen very few editorials and commentaries supporting the law (e.g., IBD, ).
News stories seem to track this editorial pattern; the AP, for example, uses opponents as its source for fact claims about the law, not its actual text. Meanwhile, published commentary appears to be unrepresentative of public opinion. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports 70% of Arizona voters favor the law and 23% oppose it.
Today we analyze the text of the bill.
More...23 Mar 2010
Black Market Economics:
Humboldt County, California
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Mexico is getting a lot of attention for how the illegal drug business has distorted its politics, economy and society. A Dallas Morning News story reports that there have been 4,500 murders in Ciudad Juarez since January 2008.
Black markets affect parts of the United States, too, and not just major urban areas. There is the case of bucolic Humboldt County California, a verdant rain forest hard up on the State's northwest coast.
More...22 Feb 2010
Health Care Legislation, Part 14:
Obama's January 22 proposal
by Richard Belzer
in Litigation, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
President Obama announced a televised meeting for Thursday to discuss all options for health care legislation. Overnight, the White House released "The Obama Plan: Stability & Security For All Americans," which the President intends to be the focal point for the event. Although this Plan is short, the White House also released a one-page summary.
The January 22 Obama Plan is not accompanied by legislative text. Thus, it can only be analyzed in qualitative terms. We do that below the jump.
More...17 Feb 2010
Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 5:
On the first anniversary
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Yesterday the White House released the Administration's first annual report on the "stimulus bill" (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or "ARRA"). The Administration and its critics are sparring over how many jobs the bill "created or saved."
Where do the numbers come from?
More...1 Feb 2010
Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 4:
Jobs 'created or saved' becomes jobs 'funded'
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Washington Post staff writer Ed O'Keefe says the "Obama administration's economic stimulus program created nearly 600,000 jobs in the final three months of 2009."
These figures are analogous to those reported three months ago and which caused significant controversy. Initial reporting was rife with errors and relied on a system that impeded error correction.
They are different, however, in ways that make them incomparable with the figures initially reported.
More...28 Jan 2010
The State of the Union:
President Obama's challenges to Democrats and Republicans
by Richard Belzer
in People & Institutions
In his State of the Union address last night, President Obama challenged Democrats to take advantage of their substantial congressional majorities and challenged Republicans not to obstruct them:
To Democrats, I would remind you that we still have the largest majority in decades, and the people expect us to solve problems, not run for the hills. And if the Republican leadership is going to insist that 60 votes in the Senate are required to do any business at all in this town -- a supermajority -- then the responsibility to govern is now yours as well. (Applause.) Just saying no to everything may be good short-term politics, but it's not leadership. We were sent here to serve our citizens, not our ambitions. So let's show the American people that we can do it together.
Here are some intriguing facts about filibuster-proof congressional majorities and the legislative productivity of the 111th Congress.
More...23 Jan 2010
Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 3:
Estimation replaced by assumption
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Previously, we have noted that the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which is responsible for ensuring accountability and transparency in the reporting of jobs "created or saved" by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, or "stimulus" bill), was not actually performing this task. Further, the underlying data were invalid and unreliable because the Office of Management and Budget did not specify a consistent estimation methodology.
Recently, Washington Post staff writer Alec MacGillis reported that White House Council of Economic Advisers chairman Christina Romer now claims ARRA "has created or saved between 1.7 million and 2 million jobs."
Examining these figures closely reveals that they are not estimates at all, but assumptions built into the Administration's estimation model.
More...14 Jan 2010
Paperwork Reduction Act
How to improve implementation of the law
by Richard Belzer
in Paperwork Burdens
On October 28, 2009, the Office of Management and Budget solicited comments on its implementation of the Paperwork Reduction Act. The purpose of the PRA is to minimize burdens on the public resulting from the federal government's information requests.
Neutral Source managing editor Richard Belzer submitted comments on his own behalf. These comments eventually will be uploaded by OMB to Regulations.Gov, the Federal government's web portal for all regulatory matters. (Clicking on the link above will reveal a fundamental weakness of the web portal: Unless the agency chooses to include information identifying the name and organizational affiliation of the submitter, there is no way to find any specific comment without opening them all.)
In response to numerous requests, a copy of these comment is posted to the Library.
More...13 Jan 2010
Sin Taxes:
Maryland's proposed 10-cent per drink alcohol tax
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Sin taxes are always popular with legislators. People volunteer to pay them, and volunteers garner little public sympathy.
Maryland legislators are proposing to levy a new tax of ten cents per eight ounces of alcoholic beverage sold in the State. A news story today shows how proponents of sin taxes tend to also be in favor of sin.
More...
