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30 Jul 2011

'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
How many people live there?

by Richard Belzer

in ,

Sometimes an urban "food deserts" is in fact a mirage because of a significant error in the data or a cramped, unrealistic definition of "low access" that disregards nearby stores in adjacent census tracts.

Only 7 census tracts in Washington, DC are identified as "food deserts." In one case, the reason is not a lack of access so much as the government's cramped definition of an acceptable grocery store. In one other case, the reason is the government's definition disregards large grocery stores in adjacent census tracts that lie within one mile of where people actually live. For the remaining five census tracts, no large grocery stores appear to be nearby under any reasonable definition of the term. But these census tracts are predominantly industrial. 

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29 Jul 2011

'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
A second look at the data

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

Yesterday's post on the federal government's new program to eradicate "food deserts" provided an obvious example in which the database yields nonsensical results. A large US Army installation, one with its own grocery store, no unemployment, and essentially no poverty, nevertheless appeared to meet all of the government's (arbitrary) criteria for inclusion.

A closer look shows that there is yet another reason why this particular "food desert" is a mirage. Soldiers who live within this census tract actually do live within one mile of a second, large grocery store--albeit one that is in an adjacent census tract.

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28 Jul 2011

'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
A look at the data

by Richard Belzer

in , , ,

One of the latest trends in federal government food policy is the eradication of "food deserts" -- places where it is said to be difficult to find fresh produce. The Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture has created an interactive map to help you learn whether you live in a "food desert".

The data are interesting, but perhaps not for the intended reason.

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11 Feb 2011

Presidential Succession in Egypt:
What does the constitution require?

by Richard Belzer

in ,

As the eyes of the world focus on Egypt, Western news media appear to be following events the same way they would follow a US election -- as a horse race. Who is up? Who is down? What to the experts say? What do the polls say?

An alternative approach is to look at what the Egyptian constitution requires. Fortunately, the Egyptian government has published an English language translation of the constitution. It's a very long document, but on matters relevant to presidential succession, it seems to be quite clear.

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22 Feb 2010

Health Care Legislation, Part 14:
Obama's January 22 proposal

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

President Obama announced a televised meeting for Thursday to discuss all options for health care legislation. Overnight, the White House released "The Obama Plan: Stability & Security For All Americans," which the President intends to be the focal point for the event. Although this Plan is short, the White House also released a one-page summary.

The January 22 Obama Plan is not accompanied by legislative text. Thus, it can only be analyzed in qualitative terms. We do that below the jump.

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17 Feb 2010

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 5:
On the first anniversary

by Richard Belzer

in

Yesterday the White House released the Administration's first annual report on the "stimulus bill" (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or "ARRA"). The Administration and its critics are sparring over how many jobs the bill "created or saved."

Where do the numbers come from?

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1 Feb 2010

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 4:
Jobs 'created or saved' becomes jobs 'funded'

by Richard Belzer

in

Washington Post staff writer Ed O'Keefe says the "Obama administration's economic stimulus program created nearly 600,000 jobs in the final three months of 2009."

These figures are analogous to those reported three months ago and which caused significant controversy. Initial reporting was rife with errors and relied on a system that impeded error correction.

They are different, however, in ways that make them incomparable with the figures initially reported.

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23 Jan 2010

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 3:
Estimation replaced by assumption

by Richard Belzer

in

Previously, we have noted that the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which is responsible for ensuring accountability and transparency in the reporting of jobs "created or saved" by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, or "stimulus" bill), was not actually performing this task. Further, the underlying data were invalid and unreliable because the Office of Management and Budget did not specify a consistent estimation methodology.

Recently, Washington Post staff writer Alec MacGillis reported that White House Council of Economic Advisers chairman Christina Romer now claims ARRA "has created or saved between 1.7 million and 2 million jobs."

Examining these figures closely reveals that they are not estimates at all, but assumptions built into the Administration's estimation model.

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14 Jan 2010

Paperwork Reduction Act
How to improve implementation of the law

by Richard Belzer

in

On October 28, 2009, the Office of Management and Budget solicited comments on its implementation of the Paperwork Reduction Act. The purpose of the PRA is to minimize burdens on the public resulting from the federal government's information requests.

Neutral Source managing editor Richard Belzer submitted comments on his own behalf. These comments eventually will be uploaded by OMB to Regulations.Gov, the Federal government's web portal for all regulatory matters. (Clicking on the link above will reveal a fundamental weakness of the web portal: Unless the agency chooses to include information identifying the name and organizational affiliation of the submitter, there is no way to find any specific comment without opening them all.)

In response to numerous requests, a copy of these comment is posted to the Library.

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5 Jan 2010

Health Care Legislation, Part 12:

by Richard Belzer

in ,

Cartoonist Lisa Benson explains the "individual mandate."



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24 Nov 2009

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 2:
Program design prevents error correction

by Richard Belzer

in

The federal government's reported figures for jobs "created or saved" by the "stimulus" bill (formally the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or "ARRA") are now known to be wrong. The Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which oversees these figures, apparently has decided not to correct them.


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20 Nov 2009

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill:
A lesson in information quality

by Richard Belzer

in

A scandal has erupted over the federal government's reporting of the number of jobs created or saved by the "stimulus" bill (formally the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009). 

This scandal would have been avoided if the government had complied with the Information Quality Act.

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28 Oct 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 5:
What happens to private insurance?

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

Recently we have posted on the so-called "public option" (see here and here). Today we look at the effect of proposed health care legislation on the private market.

By necessity, it is private insurers that have both the interest and comparative advantage to estimate these effects. The federal government, and especially the Congressional Budget Office, is almost exclusively concerned with federal budget outlays, not social costs and benefits. To keep federal outlays down, legislators focus on shifting costs off budget -- typically, onto private insurers and their customers.

Analyses recently made public by one private insurer are instructive.

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27 Oct 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 4:
The 'public option' and 'choice architecture'

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

The health care legislation debate over the past few days increasingly contains an odd twist: Should the "public option" be made ... optional?

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26 Oct 2009

Health Care Legislation, Part 3:
Making sense of the 'public option'

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

It's in the House Energy and Commerce Committee bill, which the Speaker has not brought to the floor for a vote because it lacks enough votes to pass. It's in the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions bill. It was in the Senate Finance Committee bill, then it was removed to secure one Republican vote. As the Senate leadership tries to merge these competing bills, news stories say that it's back in. Or back out. Or back in under certain conditions.

It's all very confusing. We sort it out.

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