30 Jul 2011
'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
How many people live there?
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Science, Information Quality
Sometimes an urban "food deserts" is in fact a mirage because of a significant error in the data or a cramped, unrealistic definition of "low access" that disregards nearby stores in adjacent census tracts.
Only 7 census tracts in Washington, DC are identified as "food deserts." In one case, the reason is not a lack of access so much as the government's cramped definition of an acceptable grocery store. In one other case, the reason is the government's definition disregards large grocery stores in adjacent census tracts that lie within one mile of where people actually live. For the remaining five census tracts, no large grocery stores appear to be nearby under any reasonable definition of the term. But these census tracts are predominantly industrial.
More...29 Jul 2011
'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
A second look at the data
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Science
Yesterday's post on the federal government's new program to eradicate "food deserts" provided an obvious example in which the database yields nonsensical results. A large US Army installation, one with its own grocery store, no unemployment, and essentially no poverty, nevertheless appeared to meet all of the government's (arbitrary) criteria for inclusion.
A closer look shows that there is yet another reason why this particular "food desert" is a mirage. Soldiers who live within this census tract actually do live within one mile of a second, large grocery store--albeit one that is in an adjacent census tract.
More...28 Jul 2011
'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
A look at the data
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy, Regulatory Science
One of the latest trends in federal government food policy is the eradication of "food deserts" -- places where it is said to be difficult to find fresh produce. The Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture has created an interactive map to help you learn whether you live in a "food desert".
The data are interesting, but perhaps not for the intended reason.
More...11 Feb 2011
Presidential Succession in Egypt:
What does the constitution require?
by Richard Belzer
in Governance, People & Institutions
As the eyes of the world focus on Egypt, Western news media appear to be following events the same way they would follow a US election -- as a horse race. Who is up? Who is down? What to the experts say? What do the polls say?
An alternative approach is to look at what the Egyptian constitution requires. Fortunately, the Egyptian government has published an English language translation of the constitution. It's a very long document, but on matters relevant to presidential succession, it seems to be quite clear.
More...22 Feb 2010
Health Care Legislation, Part 14:
Obama's January 22 proposal
by Richard Belzer
in Litigation, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
President Obama announced a televised meeting for Thursday to discuss all options for health care legislation. Overnight, the White House released "The Obama Plan: Stability & Security For All Americans," which the President intends to be the focal point for the event. Although this Plan is short, the White House also released a one-page summary.
The January 22 Obama Plan is not accompanied by legislative text. Thus, it can only be analyzed in qualitative terms. We do that below the jump.
More...17 Feb 2010
Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 5:
On the first anniversary
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Yesterday the White House released the Administration's first annual report on the "stimulus bill" (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or "ARRA"). The Administration and its critics are sparring over how many jobs the bill "created or saved."
Where do the numbers come from?
More...1 Feb 2010
Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 4:
Jobs 'created or saved' becomes jobs 'funded'
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Washington Post staff writer Ed O'Keefe says the "Obama administration's economic stimulus program created nearly 600,000 jobs in the final three months of 2009."
These figures are analogous to those reported three months ago and which caused significant controversy. Initial reporting was rife with errors and relied on a system that impeded error correction.
They are different, however, in ways that make them incomparable with the figures initially reported.
More...23 Jan 2010
Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 3:
Estimation replaced by assumption
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Previously, we have noted that the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which is responsible for ensuring accountability and transparency in the reporting of jobs "created or saved" by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, or "stimulus" bill), was not actually performing this task. Further, the underlying data were invalid and unreliable because the Office of Management and Budget did not specify a consistent estimation methodology.
Recently, Washington Post staff writer Alec MacGillis reported that White House Council of Economic Advisers chairman Christina Romer now claims ARRA "has created or saved between 1.7 million and 2 million jobs."
Examining these figures closely reveals that they are not estimates at all, but assumptions built into the Administration's estimation model.
More...14 Jan 2010
Paperwork Reduction Act
How to improve implementation of the law
by Richard Belzer
in Paperwork Burdens
On October 28, 2009, the Office of Management and Budget solicited comments on its implementation of the Paperwork Reduction Act. The purpose of the PRA is to minimize burdens on the public resulting from the federal government's information requests.
Neutral Source managing editor Richard Belzer submitted comments on his own behalf. These comments eventually will be uploaded by OMB to Regulations.Gov, the Federal government's web portal for all regulatory matters. (Clicking on the link above will reveal a fundamental weakness of the web portal: Unless the agency chooses to include information identifying the name and organizational affiliation of the submitter, there is no way to find any specific comment without opening them all.)
In response to numerous requests, a copy of these comment is posted to the Library.
More...5 Jan 2010
Health Care Legislation, Part 12:
by Richard Belzer
in Amusements, Regulatory Policy
Cartoonist Lisa Benson explains the "individual mandate."
