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24 Nov 2009

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 2:
Program design prevents error correction

by Richard Belzer

in

The federal government's reported figures for jobs "created or saved" by the "stimulus" bill (formally the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or "ARRA") are now known to be wrong. The Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which oversees these figures, apparently has decided not to correct them.


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20 Nov 2009

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill:
A lesson in information quality

by Richard Belzer

in

A scandal has erupted over the federal government's reporting of the number of jobs created or saved by the "stimulus" bill (formally the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009). 

This scandal would have been avoided if the government had complied with the Information Quality Act.

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19 Aug 2009

Cash for Clunkers, Part 3
Why can't the government manage this program?

by Richard Belzer

in ,

News reports indicate that the federal government is failing to manage the Cash for Clunkers program so that car dealers can be promptly reimbursed.

We think we know why.

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31 Jul 2009

"Cash for Clunkers"
A case study of how economic incentives affect behavior

by Richard Belzer

in

Apparently the new "Cash for Clunkers" program is a big success. It began on July 24, 2009, and according to the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and many other sources, the $1 billion appropriated for it may be running out.

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21 Apr 2009

The Tradeoff Between Mass and Fuel Economy:
It cannot be wished away

by Richard Belzer

in

It is a fact of physics that vehicles with greater mass do better in collisions. Wall Street Journal automotive columnist Joseph B. White explores this trade-off from an odd perspective -- one in which he seems to wish that it it weren't so.

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4 Mar 2009

Applying Nudge to Airline Pricing
Spirit Airlines and 'RECAP'

by Richard Belzer

in

Wall Street Journal airline columnist Scott McCartney reports that Spirit Airlines has established a "boundary-stretching usage fee" for buying a ticket. His story illustrates a number of practical applications of the principles set forth in Nudge, the recent book by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, who has been announced as President Obama's choice to be the next administrator of OMB's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.

Nudge provides an easily accessible, non-technical tour of behavioral economics. It also offers a useful guide to the regulatory policies of the Obama Administration.

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24 Nov 2008

Falling Oil Prices and Gasoline Consumption:
A confused look at the drop in oil prices

by Richard Belzer

in ,

The world price of oil has fallen from about $140 per barrel to less than $50, all within just a few months. Global macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated, of course, but that does not seem to explain what has happened.

Wall Street Journal columnist Joe White discusses the drop in oil prices, and he cannot seem to decide whether this is a good thing or a bad thing.

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23 Apr 2008

Proposed New Fuel Economy Standards:
A test for benefit-cost analysis

by Richard Belzer

in ,

The Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration proposed on April 22 to significantly increase the fleet average fuel economy standards motor vehicle manufacturers must meet beginning in the 2001 model year. More...

3 Dec 2007

New CAFE Standards:
Will they be cost-effective?

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

Wall Street Journal reporter Mike Spector writes on the draft agreement within the Congressional leadership on Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. The text of the bill is not yet available, but Spector's reporting provides useful information. More...

27 Jul 2007

Who Pays the Cost of Regulation?
Insights from corporate income tax incidence

by Richard Belzer

in

Regulation is widely understood as a tax on the activity or person being regulated. Where these activities repair genuine market failures, benefits from regulation may result. If there are benefits from, say, automobile safety regulation, one would expect the beneficiaries to be persons who otherwise would have been killed or injured at the pre-regulatory safety level.

But what about the costs of regulation? Who bears them? More...

5 Jul 2007

Getting Better Information About Air Travel Delays:
How benefit-cost analysis and information quality principles can solve the problem

by Richard Belzer

in

In the wake of JetBlue's latest problems, air travel in general is getting more attention. Much of this is focused on various proposals for air travel "customers bills of rights."  We've shown that CBORs don't (and possibly can't) address every circumstance of interest. They also have the peculiar effect of taking service quality out of the domain in which airlines can compete. An alternative approach not only allows airlines to compete on service quality, but encourages them to do so.

One requirement for this to work is passengers have to have access to high-quality information that addresses the kind of service quality questions they care about. The Department of Transportation has issued regulations concerning air travel delays. There is mounting evidence that these rules have not yielded the kind of information passengers need.

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27 Jun 2007

New Motor Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards, Part 5:
the evolving mission of 'high occupancy vehicle' (HOV) lanes

by Richard Belzer

in

The Washington Post recently carried a story on motor vehicle air pollution. Part of the story concerned carpooling, which normally is required for access to "high occupancy vehicle" (HOV) lanes on urban interstate highways. The story shows how the original purpose of HOV lanes -- reducing rush hour traffic congestion -- is evolving into the entirely different purposes of air pollution control and fuel efficiency. This is the predictable result of extending HOV lane privileges to solo drivers of hybrids. More...

16 May 2007

Energy Efficiency Standards for Clothes Washers:
New evidence that prices are higher and performance is lower than government regulators predicted

by Richard Belzer

in

Consumer Reports says that new clothes washers do not perform as well as their predecessors. This is not normally observed in markets. Quality improves over time, as manufacturers constantly work to improve their products to satisfy what consumers want.

Why is quality declining? CR says the culprit is federal energy efficiency regulations. Clothes washers that achieve equivalent levels of cleanliness are much more expensive, and according to CR's testing, most machines perform worse than the products they replaced.
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9 Mar 2007

The Atlanta Bus Crash
Useful information from a risk analytic perspective

by Richard Belzer

in ,

The tragic bus crash outside Atlanta killed five Bluffton University baseball players, the driver, and his wife. News reports indicate that many more remain hospitalized, some in serious or critical condition.

There is a great deal of commentary in the press and in the blogosphere, much of it focused on assigning blame. We are not going to add to that.

We provide links to the most useful information we've found of interest to highway risk analysts, who take seriously their commitment to improve safety but also realize that they cannot prevent all catastrophic bus crashes. More...

22 Feb 2007

JetBlue's "Customer Bill of Rights"
Is this a big deal?

by Richard Belzer

in ,

In response to what it it calls its "worst operational week" ever, JetBlue has issued a "customer bill of rights."

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