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16 Dec 2010

"Don't Ask, Don't Tell"
Two fatal statistical defects in the DoD surveys

by Richard Belzer

in ,

The Report of the Comprehensive Review of the Issues Associated with a Repeal of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' was released by the Department of Defense on November 30, 2010. The Report summarizes and interprets a pair of large-scale surveys of Service members and spouses hat was sponsored by DoD and conducted by WESTAT, a major consulting firm. Immediately thereafter, Congress took up the question whether to repeal the law on which the Department's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy is based.

This post is about the Report's statistical back story, and why the conclusions given in the Report are unreliable as a guide for policy-making -- regardless of whether one prefers to repeal the law, retain the law, or replace it with a more stringent one. More...

24 Nov 2009

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill, Part 2:
Program design prevents error correction

by Richard Belzer

in

The federal government's reported figures for jobs "created or saved" by the "stimulus" bill (formally the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or "ARRA") are now known to be wrong. The Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which oversees these figures, apparently has decided not to correct them.


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20 Nov 2009

Counting Jobs Created or Saved by the "Stimulus" Bill:
A lesson in information quality

by Richard Belzer

in

A scandal has erupted over the federal government's reporting of the number of jobs created or saved by the "stimulus" bill (formally the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009). 

This scandal would have been avoided if the government had complied with the Information Quality Act.

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17 Feb 2008

When Does a Normal Phenomenon Equal a Crisis?
The declining ranks of nuclear forensics experts

by Richard Belzer

in

The Washington Post reports today that the ranks of experts in nuclear weapons forensics is declining, and that the situation requires immediate action by government to avoid a crisis. More...

20 Oct 2006

Gas Tax Economics
Reviewing Mankiw's proposal

by Richard Belzer

in ,

Harvard economics professor and former Bush administration chief economist Gregory Mankiw says in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) that Congress should raise the gas tax.

With the midterm election around the corner, here's a wacky idea you won't often hear from our elected leaders: We should raise the tax on gasoline. Not quickly, but substantially. I would like to see Congress increase the gas tax by $1 per gallon, phased in gradually by 10 cents per year over the next decade.

He gives seven arguments for his proposed $1 per gallon increase in the gas tax: (1) carbon dioxide abatement, (2) reducing road congestion, (3) relief from counterproductive regulations, (4) balancing the federal budget, (5) burden-sharing with oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, (6) a preference for consumption over income taxes, and (7) enhanced national security.

Which of these arguments stands up to elementary economic scrutiny?

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19 Sep 2006

Agency Responses to NAS Questions on Risk Assessment Practice

by Richard Belzer

in ,

In June, the ad hoc National Academy of Sciences committee empaneled to review OMB's proposed risk assessment guidance asked several affected federal agencies to provide comments.

Neutral Source has copies of these comments in our Library.

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27 Jul 2006

NAS Report on Cancer Risks from Trichloroethylene (TCE)

by Richard Belzer

in , , ,

On July 27, the National Research Council of the National Academies released a report concluding that while additional research should be performed, enough information exists for the Environmental Protection Agency to complete its risk assessment of trichloroethylene. EPA's 2001 draft risk assessment was highly controversial. Similar to what has happened after EPA published other controversial draft risk assessments, several other federal agencies joined with EPA to sponsor the NRC review (in this case, the Departments of Defense and Energy and NASA).

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25 Jul 2006

NAS Asks Affected Federal Agencies to Opine on OMB's Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin

by Richard Belzer

in , ,

On June 28, staff of the National Academy of Sciences panel charged with reviewing OMB's proposed risk assessment guidance sent OMB staff a letter "regarding questions from the NRC Committee to Review the OMB Risk Assessment Bulletin for the federal agencies." The letter apparently included a list of questions that committee members wanted affected agencies to address.

 

NAS posted a reference to to this letter on the project web site but did not post a copy of the letter iitself. Our request to OMB for a copy of the letter was denied, so today we submitted a formal request for it under the Freedom of Information Act.

 

Neutral Source has obtained what we believe to be an accurate deception of the attachment.

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21 Jul 2006

Senate Approves Requirement for Peer Review of Army Corps of Engineers Water Projects

by Richard Belzer

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On July 19, the Senate approved by roll call vote of 56-43 an amendment to the Water Resources Development Act of 2005 that would require peer review of water projects undertaken by the Army Corps of Engineers.
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6 Jul 2006

Regulatory Expenditures Understated: Army Chemical Weapons Disposal

by Richard Belzer

in

Sometimes, ex ante estimates seriously understate actual regulatory compliance expenditures. This can occur because analysts are overly optimistic, because unforeseen complications arose, or because unexpected political constraints intervened. All three problems seem to apply in this case. But what's especially interesting about it is that the regulated party that underestimated compliance expenditures.
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14 May 2006

Benefit-cost Analysis and Federal Water Projects

by Richard Belzer

in

Two articles of interest appeared in the Washington Post Sunday "Opinion" section, one by reporter Michael Grunwald and the second by freelance author John Barry. Grunwald and Barry say the Army Corps of Engineers is a failed civil works agency whose errors were responsible for the flooding of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.  Moreover, they place the blame for the Corps' failure squarely on Congress. 
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19 Apr 2006

"Opportunity Cost": Real World Example #1

by Richard Belzer

in

The concept of opportunity cost is central to benefit-cost analysis and generally not understood by non-economists. Previously we explained how the opportunity cost of regulation differs from expenditures on regulatory compliance. We are building a list of real-world examples that show why this concept matches up with common sense. More...

15 Mar 2006

Welcome to the Neutral Source Blog

by Richard Belzer

in , , , , , , , , , , ,

Neutral Source opened for business on the Ides of March 2006. More...