15 Jul 2008
The Clean Air Act and Climate Change:
First in a series
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Science, Regulatory Economics
On July 11, 2008, EPA published for public comment an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking on the question whether, and if so, how, EPA should regulate carbon dioxide as a criteria air pollutant under the Clean Air Act. EPA simultaneously published a letter from Susan Dudley, Administrator of OMB's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, publicly distancing the Bush administration from EPA's proposal. Comments sent to EPA by other federal agencies also were made public.
This set of events may be unprecedented in the annals of federal regulatory poliicy. Today we begin a series providing a policy-neutral examination of the documents and the issues presented.
More...4 Jul 2008
Where Does Science End and Policy Begin?
Vitamin D
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Policy, Regulatory Science
Washington Post staff writer Rob Stein reports on a controversy over whether the federal government's recommendations for Vitamin D intake are adequate. The story illustrates the perils of delegating policy decisions to scientists. More...
30 Jun 2008
Rounding Error and Information Quality:
The case of Exxon Shipping Co. v. Baker
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality
Last week the Supreme Court reversed an appellate court opinion that would have imposed $2.5 billion in punitive damages resulting from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. In the majority opinion written by Justice David Souter, the Court opined on a matter of maritime law for which there was neither a constitutional precedent nor operating law. The Court ruled that a 1:1 ratio of punitive to compensatory damages "is a fair upper limit in such maritime cases."
The Court obtained this ratio by conducting an ad hoc qualitative statistical analysis of trial court practice, which yielded a ratio of 0.65:1, then rounding up to 1:1. It is instructive to note the practical financial significance of the arcane information quality issue of significant figures (see here and here). More...
28 Jun 2008
Are Airline Loyalty Programs About to Die?
Delta (and others?) to start charging for award tickets
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
Delta Airlines has announced new fees for redeeming frequent flyer miles into airline tickets -- $25 for domestic flights and $50 for international destinations. Other airlines are considering reciprocal actions.
What does economics teach about the likely consequences of this action? More...
24 Jun 2008
McCain's $300 Million Prize for a 'Super Battery':
Would this help or hurt?
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
Sen. John McCain has proposed that the federal government award a $300 million prize for the "for the development of a battery package that has the size, capacity, cost and power to leapfrog the commercially available plug-in hybrids or electric cars."
Assuming it would be a good thing to have this technology, is McCain's proposal economically sensible?
More...
17 Jun 2008
Carbon Taxes and Auctions:
What to do with $7 trillion, part 2
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
In a story summarizing an in depth interview with Sen. Barack Obama, Wall Street Journal reporters Bob Davis and Amy Chozick provide news insights concerning how he or Sen. John McCain would propose to spend trillions of dollars in new government revenue that would be collected by auctioning carbon emission allowances. More...
14 Jun 2008
Cap and Trade:
Applying it to gasoline
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Economics
Energy economist Jonathan Lesser publishes a commentary in the Wall Street Journal "recommending" a cap-and-trade program for gasoline. The piece is lightly satirical but nevertheless highlights an important point: All emission permit systems, including the proposed cap-and-trade regime for greenhouse gases, is a form of rationing. More...
4 Jun 2008
Carbon Taxes and Auctions:
What to do with $7 trillion
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
Robert Reich, secretary of the Department of Labor in the Clinton Administration, addresses the question of what the federal government should do with several trillion dollars worth of new revenue from carbon taxes or auctioned permits. More...
2 Jun 2008
Economists, Advocacy Groups, and Climate Change:
The Southern Alliance for Clean Energy's 'Economist Statement'
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
The Senate is this week debating what would be the most far-reaching environmental legislation in US history, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act (S. 3036). A regional US advocacy group, the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE), has distributed a "Cap and Trade Economist Statement" which would imply that economists favor the bill.
The Statement is interesting on several levels. First, it never mentions the bill being debated. Second, it focuses solely on one narrow (but politically important) aspect -- whether carbon emission permits would be given way or auctioned. Third, the principles that SACE wants economists to agree with are fundamentally incompatible with elementary economics. Finally, SACE says that a number of distinguished economists have signed the Statement anyway. More...
1 Jun 2008
Breaking Even is Hard to Do:
The higher cost of hybrid vehicles
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
New York Times reporter Bill Vlasic says "[c]onsumers have been slow to embrace" General Motors' new Yukon/Tahoe Hybrid despite the near 50% improvement in city driving fuel efficiency. It's easy to see why. More...
30 May 2008
Economic Incentives that Work:
How to stop 'flopping'
by Richard Belzer
in Amusements, Regulatory Economics
The Washington Post's Ivan Carter writes that the NBA has decided to fine players who 'flop'. Will it work? More...
29 May 2008
Information Quality and Peer Review:
Are disclaimers in draft documents effective?
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality
Since 2002, federal information quality guidelines have required agencies to avoid disseminating scientific information that is not objective, and to have effective administrative systems for managing requests for the correction of information that a petitioner believes is incorrect. The burden of proof of error rests with the petitioner.
All information that is "disseminated" is covered by these rules, but information that is made public solely for the purpose of scientific peer review or public comment is exempt from the definition -- provided that it is accompanied with a specified disclaimer (p. 8):
The purpose of this disclaimer is to deter people from relying on draft documents. An empirical question is whether the prescribed language is strong enough.
An interesting test case has arisen with respect to the industrial chemical bisphenol A (BPA). More...
28 May 2008
Gas Tax Holidays, Part 4:
Pressure in favor mounts in Europe
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Economics
Public discussion about a federal gas tax holiday has abated in the U.S., but according to the Washington Post it is heating up in Europe. More...
27 May 2008
More Evidence that Consumers Respond to Gas Prices
Increases observed in mass transit use
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
During the short-lived debate about suspending the federal gas tax to ease prices, economists quoted in the news seemed to agree that consumer demand is highly inelastic -- that is, as price increases a lot, the quantity demanded changes very little.
The news increasingly contains stories suggesting that consumers respond more to changes in the price of gasoline than economists have assumed is the case. Example: rising use of mass transit. More...
24 May 2008
To Save Gas, Consumers Accept More Safety Risk and Emit More Air Pollution
Some costs of switching to motor scooters
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
The Wall Street Journal reports that at the same time consumer demand for low-mileage SUVs and trucks has plummeted in response to high gasoline prices, consumer demand for high-mileage motor scooters has intensified. This tradeoff is entirely predictable. Scooters are ubiquitous commuter vehicles in European cites, where because of high taxes gasoline prices have for years been as high as they are now in the U.S.
Consumers are making two less obvious (but just as predictable) trades to get higher gas mileage: increased risk of injury and death from motor vehicle crashes and more air pollution. More...
