18 Aug 2011
How Assessing and Managing Risk Are Different:
Professional football training
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Science
The Houston Texans are holding training camp in Houston, where it has been routinely very hot and humid. What the team is doing is making a clear distinction between the assessment of human health risk (in this case, from heatstroke and dehydration) and the management of these risks.
It's an interesting lesson showing why the conventional methods of human health risk assessment used by government are so flawed.
More...12 Aug 2011
Drinking Water Regulations and Conservation:
The latter makes the former more expensive
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics
A report in the Barnstable Patriot suggests that water conservation is raising the cost of drinking water in Hyannis, Massachusetts.
More...2 Aug 2011
Zero Tolerance Reycling:
$1,000 tickets for recyclables in the trash
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy
Freeman Klopott of the Washington Examiner reports "[r]esidents and business owners in some of the District's wealthiest neighborhoods are outraged over tickets they've received for up to $1,000 by the city's trash police for having a recyclable item as small as a soda can mixed in with their trash."
More...30 Jul 2011
'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
How many people live there?
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality, Regulatory Science
Sometimes an urban "food deserts" is in fact a mirage because of a significant error in the data or a cramped, unrealistic definition of "low access" that disregards nearby stores in adjacent census tracts.
Only 7 census tracts in Washington, DC are identified as "food deserts." In one case, the reason is not a lack of access so much as the government's cramped definition of an acceptable grocery store. In one other case, the reason is the government's definition disregards large grocery stores in adjacent census tracts that lie within one mile of where people actually live. For the remaining five census tracts, no large grocery stores appear to be nearby under any reasonable definition of the term. But these census tracts are predominantly industrial.
More...29 Jul 2011
'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
A second look at the data
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Science
Yesterday's post on the federal government's new program to eradicate "food deserts" provided an obvious example in which the database yields nonsensical results. A large US Army installation, one with its own grocery store, no unemployment, and essentially no poverty, nevertheless appeared to meet all of the government's (arbitrary) criteria for inclusion.
A closer look shows that there is yet another reason why this particular "food desert" is a mirage. Soldiers who live within this census tract actually do live within one mile of a second, large grocery store--albeit one that is in an adjacent census tract.
More...28 Jul 2011
'Food Deserts' or Mirages?
A look at the data
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality, Regulatory Economics, Regulatory Policy, Regulatory Science
One of the latest trends in federal government food policy is the eradication of "food deserts" -- places where it is said to be difficult to find fresh produce. The Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture has created an interactive map to help you learn whether you live in a "food desert".
The data are interesting, but perhaps not for the intended reason.
More...1 Apr 2011
Disease Clusters and Environmental Health:
Oral Testimony of Richard B. Belzer
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Science
In his capacity as President of Regulatory Checkbook, Neutral Source's Managing Editor Richard Belzer was asked to testify before the US Senate on scientific and technical issues related to the identification and verification of environmental disease clusters. The bill under consideration is S. 76, the "Strengthening Protections for Children and Communities From Disease Clusters Act," co-sponsored by Sens. Boxer (D-CA) and Crapo (R-ID).
Neither Regulatory Checkbook nor Neutral Source take positions on or advocate the passage or defeat of substantive legislation.
The full oral testimony is reproduced below the jump.
The full written testimony is here.
More...31 Mar 2011
Disease Clusters and Environmental Health:
Written Testimony of Richard B. Belzer
by Richard Belzer
in Legislation, Regulatory Science
In his capacity as President of Regulatory Checkbook, Neutral Source's Managing Editor Richard Belzer was asked to testify before the US Senate on scientific and technical issues related to the identification and verification of environmental disease clusters. The bill under consideration is S. 76, the "Strengthening Protections for Children and Communities From Disease Clusters Act," co-sponsored by Sens. Boxer (D-CA) and Crapo (R-ID).
Neither Regulatory Checkbook nor Neutral Source take positions on or advocate the passage or defeat of substantive legislation.
The full written testimony is reproduced below the jump.
The full oral testimony is here.
More...1 Mar 2011
The REINS Act:
Would it work as intended?
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Policy
House and Senate Republicans have proposed legislation (HR 10, S 299) intending to substantially change federal regulatory practice. The proposed Regulations From the Executive in Need of Scrutiny Act of 2011 (The "REINS Act").
What is the bill supposed to do? What is it likely to do?
More...11 Feb 2011
Presidential Succession in Egypt:
The unconstitutional epilogue
by Richard Belzer
in Governance
News reports say Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has resigned. Apparently, the constitutional procedure for succession is not being followed, and instead there has been a coup.
More...Presidential Succession in Egypt:
What does the constitution require?
by Richard Belzer
in Governance, People & Institutions
As the eyes of the world focus on Egypt, Western news media appear to be following events the same way they would follow a US election -- as a horse race. Who is up? Who is down? What to the experts say? What do the polls say?
An alternative approach is to look at what the Egyptian constitution requires. Fortunately, the Egyptian government has published an English language translation of the constitution. It's a very long document, but on matters relevant to presidential succession, it seems to be quite clear.
More...21 Jan 2011
Regulatory Review in the Obama Administration:
Clinton and Obama directives compared
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Policy
On January 18, President Obama issued an executive order that modifies longstanding principles and procedures for centralized regulatory oversight conducted by by the Office of Management and Budget.
The three tables below provide a side-by-side comparison of the new text with the text of Executive Order 12,866, issued by President Clinton in 1993. To guide readers in making comparisons, text that is underlined is the same in both documents.
Interpreting such texts requires close attention to detail. For this reason, we have color-coded both texts as follows:
GREEN HIGHLIGHT: Directive language (e.g., "shall", "must") with tightly defined verbs (e.g., "identify", "assess", "design", "maximize", "promulgate") often applied to concrete objects (e.g., "net benefits", "duplicative", "burdensome", "least burdensome", "most cost-effective") sometimes comprehensively (e.g., "only").
Objective performance evaluation generally is possible.
YELLOW HIGHLIGHT: Hortatory language (e.g., "should", "may") with loosely defined verbs (e.g., "consider", "promote", "endeavor to provide", "harmonize"), or used to modify directive language ambiguously (e.g., "where feasible and appropriate", "to the extent feasible").
Objective performance evaluation typically is impossible.
Where GREEN text is preceded or followed by YELLOW text, the result is always weaker.
More...
16 Dec 2010
"Don't Ask, Don't Tell"
Two fatal statistical defects in the DoD surveys
by Richard Belzer
in Information Quality, Regulatory Policy
The Report of the Comprehensive Review of the Issues Associated with a Repeal of 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' was released by the Department of Defense on November 30, 2010. The Report summarizes and interprets a pair of large-scale surveys of Service members and spouses hat was sponsored by DoD and conducted by WESTAT, a major consulting firm. Immediately thereafter, Congress took up the question whether to repeal the law on which the Department's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy is based.
This post is about the Report's statistical back story, and why the conclusions given in the Report are unreliable as a guide for policy-making -- regardless of whether one prefers to repeal the law, retain the law, or replace it with a more stringent one. More...
26 Nov 2010
Airport Security, Part 4:
Irreconcilable differences
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Policy, Regulatory Science
Today's Wall Street Journal editorial page has a pair of commentaries taking nearly opposite positions on the recent controversy over TSA's screening procedures and practices. Gabriel Schoenfeld defends TSA's invasive pat-downs as necessary to prevent terror attacks using non-metallic weapons such as C-4 and PETN. Peggy Noonan says TSA has gone too far.
Schoenfeld and Noonan are opposed for at least two reasons:
- They have different perspectives about the tolerable risk of terrorism via aircraft. Noonan would tolerate higher risks than Schoenfeld.
- They have different perceptions of the intangible costs of enhanced screening. Noonan believes public support for TSA is declining (and will continue to do so) because invasive screening is humiliating and undignified. Schoenfeld believes these are acceptable costs to achieve better security.
25 Nov 2010
Airport Security, Part 3:
Does TSA invite terrorism?
by Richard Belzer
in Regulatory Policy, Regulatory Science
Controversy about the Transportation Security Administration's new screening technologies and procedures continues to intensify. The White House is reacting defensively. The chairman of the Senate homeland security committee, Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) is defending the new procedures. Opponents of advanced imaging technology have attempted to organize a nationwide "Opt-Out" yesterday, the busiest airline travel day of the year.
Travelers electing to opt-out face mandatory, invasive pat-downs. Should the number of opt-outers be substantial, the queue for invasive pat-downs could stretch TSA resources beyond their capacity. This is the result organizers intend. They hope to persuade TSA to relent on its one-size-fits-all approach to airport security. TSA Administrator John Pistole first said he would not budge and criticized proponents of the opt-out campaign for causing massive delays and missed flights, then appeared to give ground after his position was undermined by Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama. According to Pistole, the new, invasive pat-down procedure is needed to prevent threats such as the so-called Christmas Day bombing attempt 11 months ago. (The implied 11-month delay in TSA's response is not explained.)
Pistole displays a tone of bureaucratic defensiveness that suggests he's primarily concerned with how he would be treated in the event that an aircraft is successfully targeted by a terrorist:
"I would hate to think what happens if the government caves in on this and relaxes these procedures and someone manages to get on board a plane and causes harm," Pistole said Monday in an interview on NBC's "TODAY" show. "Imagine what you will be asked."
A closer look suggests suggests that TSA's screening procedures are illogical even if Pistole's position is taken at face value. This reinforces the hypothesis we previously suggested, but considered very unlikely, that the reason TSA is forcing invasive pat-downs is to overcome travelers' objections to advanced imaging. If travelers object strenuously enough to invasive pat-downs, they will begin to prefer advanced imaging technology as the lesser of two evils. This is a sensible strategy if TSA intends to replace all metal detectors with advanced imaging devices but recognizes that travelers will agree to it only if they have no other option.
More...
